Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Election Bloopers and Blunders

Here's some light-hearted relief from this year's federal election campaigning, compiled by ABC News.

Watch here

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Howard's Judgement Day

I watched the ABC commentary last Saturday night completely in awe of the enormous 6.3 % national swing to the ALP. Not only had the ALP contained the damage in Western Australia but seat after seat had fallen in even safe Liberal electorates. Massive swings of over 14% were recorded in some seats and Maxine McKew looked like she had pulled off the unthinkable and beaten Howard in his own seat of Bennelong. All five seats in Tasmania fell to the ALP along with election winning gains in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Ministers had fallen and at that point we were still be told of the pending retirements of senior Coalition members like Mark Vaile and Peter Costello to name just two.

At 10.35pm Prime Minister Howard appeared with his family to concede defeat and in doing so ending an era Australian politics. His speech was delivered with enormous dignity and grace and he congratulated Prime Minister elect Rudd on a “very emphatic victory”. He also went on to accept full responsibility for the Coalition campaign and election defeat and also stressed that Australia was now “stronger, prouder and more prosperous” than it had been 11 ½ years prior. If that statement was true then why had so many Australians turned their back on the Coalition? If indeed the average family were so much better off why had they so resoundingly sacked the government?

There are a number of factors that I suggest were at play. Firstly Australians have developed a social conscience that now cannot be politically ignored. Issues like the environment, treatment of refugees, equal rights for gay and lesbian couples and the promised “Education Revolution” have hit a chord with voters to the extent that the economy has been considered as one factor rather than the main factor in determining government. The massive increase in the availability and access to information due to the internet has played its part in shaping this election result. Never before have the Australian people had such a massive amount of information so readily available to assist in making the enormous decision of electing our government. Never before has there been such scrutiny of a government’s performance.

At the end of 33 years in parliament, 15 as Leader of the Liberal Party and 11 ½ years as Prime Minister, John Howard has cemented his place in history as the second longest serving Prime Minister in Australia’s history. Australia’s 26th Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd has set a massive agenda for reform and was at work on Sunday morning speaking to other world leaders and instructing the new Labor Caucus to visit at least one government and one private school in their electorate before meeting in Canberra this Thursday. With Labor in government Federally and in all States and Territories we have never had a better chance of resolving issues where there has been little or no co-operation between Government at all levels. It is with enormous excitement that I thank Mr Howard for his contribution to our great nation and welcome the man who may well prove to be the best Prime Minister this country has ever seen.

Michael Marquette

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

What the Polls Say: The Latest Snapshot

The latest Newspoll shows while the Coalition has slightly narrowed the gap on Labor, it still has ground to make up

The poll of 20 Nov in the Australian newspaper shows the Coalition closing the gap slightly on the primary vote, up 1point to 41 per cent. This is 5 points behind Labor, which has dropped 2 points to 46 per cent.

On a two party-preferred basis, the Coalition has climbed one point to 46 per cent, eight points behind Labor on 54 per cent.

The gap between John Howard and Kevin Rudd has also narrowed slightly, 42 per cent would prefer Mr Howard as Prime Minister, up 2 points, compared to 46 per cent opting for Mr Rudd.
It's the closest preferred PM result in six months.

On the issue of economic management, John Howard has maintained his lead, despite an unprecedented interest rate rise during the election campaign.

As for Malcolm Turnbull's seat of Wentworth (Marquette Turner HQ), a new poll suggests he is facing an uphill battle to retain his seat.

A Nielsen poll of 901 Wentworth voters, published in Fairfax newspapers, shows Greens preferences could give Labor's George Newhouse, leading to a Labor win in the seat for the first time since federation.

Even though Mr Turnbull leads the primary vote by 45 per cent to 36 per cent, Greens candidate Susan Jarnason is attracting 17 per cent support in the primary vote and her preferences will flow to Labor, leaving Mr Newhouse leading Mr Turnbull by 52 percent to 48 percent on a two party preferred basis.

This of course does not factor in the shadow over Mr Newhouse's head as to whether he is inellegible to be a candidate. A Liberal Party spokesperson cites Mr Newhouse, as well as 12 other Labor candidates throughout Australia, whose candidacy is questionable. The ALP completely disputes such assertions and whilst this could lead to a spate of by-elections post-election, it could also shore up support for the ALP leading up to the election as voters turn against the Coalition for raising such assertions.

Finally, a special telephone Morgan Poll of 435 electors conducted last night (November 20) shows a swing (0.8%) to the Liberals in the five Western Australian marginal seats of Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan.

In these five key WA seats, Liberal primary support is 44%, ALP 42.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 1% and Independent/Others 3%.

After allocating preferences the two-party preferred result is Liberal 50.5%, ALP 49.5% - a swing of 0.8% to the Liberals since the 2004 election. Simon Turner

Australia's Constitutional Crisis of 2017

Ten Years On: Constitutional crisis looms

The President, John Howard, said yesterday he would not hesitate to use his powers of dismissal if the Prime Minister could not resolve the dispute that caused the Opposition to block key bills in the Senate.

The Opposition Leader, Malcolm Turnbull, has told Liberal senators to follow a policy of "total obstruction'' until the Prime Minister, Peter Garrett, abandons his plan to build a nuclear reactor in every state capital. Mr Turnbull is supported by four of the eight Greens senators, three of the six Holy Family senators, and the Democrat Senator Natasha Stott-Despoja.

Mr Howard delivered his threat during a ceremony in Canberra to mark Australia's return to 20 million people under the "depopulate or perish'' program. Mr Howard congratulated the Government on its anti-immigration and anti-fertility measures, which put Australia on track to reach the so-called "Flannery line" of 18 million by 2026.

Then Mr Howard departed from his prepared speech to add: "When Peter Garrett reached across the party divide to nominate me as the first president of the republic, he called it an act of national reconciliation. I told him at the time that this would not prevent me from doing my duty to the nation, and that includes ensuring the Parliament can function.''

Mr Howard's remarks were immediately condemned by the Victorian Premier, Peter Costello, and the NSW Premier, Pru Goward. Both are supporters of Mr Garrett's program to cut Australia's dependence on coal-fired power stations. "That little toad kept me waiting so long I had to move back to Melbourne and join the Labor Party to get career advancement,'' Mr Costello said. "Now he's threatening the first green Labor government in this country's history. He should respect the Garrett mandate."

Mr Garrett accused Mr Turnbull of wanting to continue Australia's greenhouse emissions so global warming would give his Woollahra home a water frontage.

STOP PRESS: the College of Cardinals in Rome has elected an Australian as the new Pope. He is the former politician Tony Abbott, who returned to the priesthood in 2008 after the Liberal Party failed to choose him as leader.

He will take the name Pope Abbott I, "in recognition of the way a humble Abbott can rise, through hard work and determination, to the top job in the world's most powerful religious corporation.''

Pope Abbott said his first priority was to "ramp up'' what he called "the war of ideas with Islam''. "Christianity needs to be packaged more dynamically, and I believe I have the diplomatic skills to do that," he said.

Original article featured in the Sydney Morning Herald, Stay in Touch feature.

Polling Points to Potential Carnage

Polling Suggests Carnage

The Australian Electoral Commission has announced that 13,645,073 voters are enrolled for this Saturday’s election.

That represents 550,000 more than had been on the electoral rolls three years earlier (13,098,461) and almost 1.3 million than actually voted in the 2004 election!

The commission also gave a breakdown of the age groupings of the Australian electorate. These are:
18-24: 1,535,870.
25-39: 3,513,510.
40-54: 3,856,190.
55 and over: 4,739,500.

So – on which side of the fence are the majority of these groups sitting?

AC Nielsen’s polling is showing that Labor is destroying the Coalition in all age groups but the over-55s, where the Coalition has an advantage nationally of 49 per cent to 43 per cent in the primary vote. Considering it is also the largest voting group, it is quite evident why John Howard and his team is ploughing such a huge effort of time and policy promises into them.

Even then, when compared to the previous 4 elections won by the Coalition, Labor has been able to gain on average an additional 9 percentage points among over-55 voters.

In the other age groups the Coalition is severely struggling and the carnage in NSW and Queensland will be immense. Only WA is offering a glimmer of hope for John Howard to keep the Kirribilli lights on. Simon Turner

Friday, November 16, 2007

Electorate More Persuaded by ALP Advertising

On Wednesday and Thursday, Roy Morgan Research used a representative sample of the Australian electorate to monitor their responses to the the seven main political advertisements running on television for the L-NP and ALP, ACTU, and ALP/Greens/Australian Democrats.

The role of The Reactor was to monitor whether the advertising made them "more inclined to the L-NP or the ALP". Between each advertisement, respondents returned to a neutral position.
Typically, the respondents react in accordance with party lines, spokespeople and topics.

Whilst this was generally the case over the last few evenings, the ACTU advertisement of the young woman and the middle-aged couple talking about how Work Choices is hurting working families, clearly touched a nerve with L-NP supporters as well as their own followers. Similarly, so did the ALP advertisement reminding the electorate of the six interest rate rises under the L-NP Government.

The L-NP appeared to be talking only to their traditional electorate and failed to move ALP voters. The ALP/Greens/Australian Democrats ad about 'time to restore the balance to the House of Review' did not move either ALP or L-NP supporters to any extent.

What the parties must do to win:
· The ALP needs to cement their traditional supporters as well as continue to motivate some L-NP voters as they appear to be achieving well. Watch a simple yet effective video from Kevin07
· The L-NP needs not only to focus its traditional voters, but also those “soft ALP voters”. It's advertising must be clearer, leaner and broader.

Who has the most stamina as we edge towards the finish line? Simon Turner

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

The Coalitions' Offer to Improve Housing Affordability

John Howard has put forward a low-tax deposit savings account pledge to assist first-home buyers as part of the Coalitions' election bounty. The $1.56 billion plan is similar to the $600m pledge of Kevin Rudds.

Under the Coalition's scheme, two forms of saving account will be available:

1) Adult first-home buyers will be able to make contributions of up to $10,000 per year into a home deposit saving account. The first $1000 deposited each year is claimable as a tax deduction and interest earned on sums in the account are tax free.

2) Adults will be able to make a total contribution of up to $1000 per year towards the first-home purchase of a family member or friend below the age of 18. The contributions are tax deductible or, for people with no taxable income, subject to a 15% cash rebate.

Additionally, Howard has also promised to exempt first homes purchased in shared equity arrangements between the occupant and a contributing family member from capital gains tax.

If you're trying to work out which party's offer is the most generous, here's what the Housing Industry Association’s Chris Lamont had to say:

“Tax concessions under the Coalition policy appears more generous than what’s offered by Labor,” Lamont says. “But Labor has more of a focus on balancing the needs of home owners with the rental market, so overall they are both very good policies.”

The reality, however, is that neither policy is likely to improve housing affordability, despite the multi-million dollar tax concessions involved. What is being promoted is creating a culture of saving.

Thus, whilst the housing affordability crisis will not be solved by such policies, it would appear that both parties are listening to the concerns of Australians. Simon Turner

Read Marquette Turner's account of Labor's policy.

The Roy Morgan Reactor: Interest Rates

Watch the Roy Morgan Reactor, a very clever use of graphs that move in time with ALP and Coalition announcements and ads.

Watch HERE

The Right to Know

“Australia’s Right to Know”, a Sydney-based coalition of media companies, commissioned a report from Irene Moss, a former magistrate and New South Wales state ombudsman. According to a statment released on November 5th, Mrs Moss found 335 pieces of legislation with secrecy provisions. Thus, can it be true that press freedom, and indeed the freedom of information in Australia is increasingly becoming endangered by the growth of government secrecy.

Ms Moss claims that the burdens associated with freedom-of-information filings have begun to overwhelm many journalists. In one particular case, government officials demanded almost $13,000 for “decision-making time” related to the release of documents about climate change around the Great Barrier Reef.

Whilst I do not believe that we're on the path to becoming like North Korea, it is nevertheless concerning to hear that bureaucracy and secrecy are taking hold of such a champion of democracy. Simon Turner

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Homes for the Homeless

As part of its electioneering, Labor has unveiled a $150 million promise to build up to 600 new houses and units across the country to provide better access to housing for homeless people.

Mr Rudd, speaking at a Mission Australia shelter in inner Sydney, said Labor's aim is to halve the number of homeless people turned away from shelters each year within five years and close the gap within a decade to ensure all homeless obtained shelter.

"This is all part of reaching out with a helping hand to Australians in need," he told reporters.

Mr Rudd said figures from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare indicated that in 2005-06 there were 3,383 requests for emergency accommodation that could not be met.

That was almost five per cent of the total number of requests for emergency accommodation, he said. At Mission Australia, where Mr Rudd talked to residents, more than half of all single adult women seeking accommodation are turned away.

"In a nation that has experienced 16 consecutive years of economic growth, this is simply not acceptable," stated Mr Rudd. Simon Turner

Labor Offers First Home Buyers a Lifeline

Should Labor win Government, it has promised to establish low-tax saving accounts to encourage first home buyers to save more towards a house deposit.

Under the scheme, which will cost $600 million over four years, first home buyers can make a pre-tax deposit of up to $5000 per year into a special deposit saving account that will be taxed at just 15%. Another $5000 per year after-tax can also be deposited, with interest from the full sum in the account also taxed at the low 15% rate.

The money can only be accessed after four years and must be put towards a home deposit – money can still be withdrawn if not used for that purpose, but the value of the tax concessions will be subtracted from the sum withdrawn. A minimum deposit of $1000 per year is required to keep an account open and the total amount deposited cannot exceed $50,000.

By encouraging first home owners to save, the scheme will help reduce debt levels and the use of expensive deposit guarantees like mortgage insurance, according to Housing Industry Association senior executive director Chris Lamont.

For many, however, even the $1000 minimum may be tough for some people to meet, particularly given that rental prices are on the high side, but certainly some assistance and encouragement is better than nothing. Simon Turner

Read Marquette Turner's account of the Coalition's policy

Melbourne Cup - Who Bet on Whom?

Whilst neither party's leader joined the fanfair at Flemington, Howard’s favourite, Mahler, came in third and Rudd backed the winner Efficient (after his original choice was scratched).

Simon Turner

Australia's Broadband Speed

Broadband is front and centre in election campaigning today, with Coalition Communication Minister Helen Coonan seeking to capitalise on OECD figures showing that Australia has the 9th fastest broadband in the world.

According to Coonan, the OECD’s global internet rankings show Australia is performing well compared to many other developed nations, and clearly does not support Kevin Rudd's claim that Australia's broadband performance is woeful.

As well as the 9th fastest broadband in the world, Australia also has the 4th most affordable broadband, the 6th fastest broadband connection speeds and the 12th fastest take-up of broadband services of the 30 countries surveyed by the OECD.

Simon Turner

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

"Change it all" by Peter Garrett

Listen to the sound bite relating to Peter Garrett's comment that should Labor take government that, when it comes to their policies, they'll just "change it all". CLICK here

Simon Turner

Recycling Policies

Malcolm Turnbull, the Environment Minister and Peter Garrett, his Labor counterpart, squared off in a short debate yesterday on the Seven Network to outline the environmental platform on which their parties are fighting this month’s Federal Election

As previously mentioned, Mr Turnbull is also the local member for Wentworth, thus Marquette Turner’s HQ falls within his constituency so we are taking a particular awareness of his actions and policies.

After I questioned Mr Turnbull on the fact that despite him being the Minister for Environment, I found it quite ironic that our HQ, which is in fact in Crown St, only 5 minutes walk from his office, we do not get the benefit of recycling.

His response to me was that this was the responsibility of the local council, but would indeed allay my concerns to the local Liberal member (whom notably, does not hold the local council seat).

To add insult to injury, he stated in his debate that recycling is essentially at the heart of his policies and is indeed one of his initiatives.

Whilst I certainly appreciated the speed of his personal response, and my comments are certainly not intended to “point the finger” at the policies of one particular party (both of whose representatives have not been immune from gaffes), I also believe the accountability and “keeping the bastards honest” doesn’t hurt, and in this particular issue Mr Turnbull draws the short straw.

Recylcing should indeed be at the heart of an environmental policy as it SHOULD BE something that every single Australian can participate in. Whilst we can exert pressure when it comes to our believes on whether Kyoto is ratified or not, recycling is an every-day action that each household should be given the opportunity to take part in. Mr Turnbull, please get your local "house in order”. Simon Turner