Ten Years On: Constitutional crisis looms
The President, John Howard, said yesterday he would not hesitate to use his powers of dismissal if the Prime Minister could not resolve the dispute that caused the Opposition to block key bills in the Senate.
The Opposition Leader, Malcolm Turnbull, has told Liberal senators to follow a policy of "total obstruction'' until the Prime Minister, Peter Garrett, abandons his plan to build a nuclear reactor in every state capital. Mr Turnbull is supported by four of the eight Greens senators, three of the six Holy Family senators, and the Democrat Senator Natasha Stott-Despoja.
Mr Howard delivered his threat during a ceremony in Canberra to mark Australia's return to 20 million people under the "depopulate or perish'' program. Mr Howard congratulated the Government on its anti-immigration and anti-fertility measures, which put Australia on track to reach the so-called "Flannery line" of 18 million by 2026.
Then Mr Howard departed from his prepared speech to add: "When Peter Garrett reached across the party divide to nominate me as the first president of the republic, he called it an act of national reconciliation. I told him at the time that this would not prevent me from doing my duty to the nation, and that includes ensuring the Parliament can function.''
Mr Howard's remarks were immediately condemned by the Victorian Premier, Peter Costello, and the NSW Premier, Pru Goward. Both are supporters of Mr Garrett's program to cut Australia's dependence on coal-fired power stations. "That little toad kept me waiting so long I had to move back to Melbourne and join the Labor Party to get career advancement,'' Mr Costello said. "Now he's threatening the first green Labor government in this country's history. He should respect the Garrett mandate."
Mr Garrett accused Mr Turnbull of wanting to continue Australia's greenhouse emissions so global warming would give his Woollahra home a water frontage.
STOP PRESS: the College of Cardinals in Rome has elected an Australian as the new Pope. He is the former politician Tony Abbott, who returned to the priesthood in 2008 after the Liberal Party failed to choose him as leader.
He will take the name Pope Abbott I, "in recognition of the way a humble Abbott can rise, through hard work and determination, to the top job in the world's most powerful religious corporation.''
Pope Abbott said his first priority was to "ramp up'' what he called "the war of ideas with Islam''. "Christianity needs to be packaged more dynamically, and I believe I have the diplomatic skills to do that," he said.
Original article featured in the Sydney Morning Herald, Stay in Touch feature.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Polling Points to Potential Carnage
Polling Suggests Carnage
The Australian Electoral Commission has announced that 13,645,073 voters are enrolled for this Saturday’s election.
That represents 550,000 more than had been on the electoral rolls three years earlier (13,098,461) and almost 1.3 million than actually voted in the 2004 election!
The commission also gave a breakdown of the age groupings of the Australian electorate. These are:
18-24: 1,535,870.
25-39: 3,513,510.
40-54: 3,856,190.
55 and over: 4,739,500.
So – on which side of the fence are the majority of these groups sitting?
AC Nielsen’s polling is showing that Labor is destroying the Coalition in all age groups but the over-55s, where the Coalition has an advantage nationally of 49 per cent to 43 per cent in the primary vote. Considering it is also the largest voting group, it is quite evident why John Howard and his team is ploughing such a huge effort of time and policy promises into them.
Even then, when compared to the previous 4 elections won by the Coalition, Labor has been able to gain on average an additional 9 percentage points among over-55 voters.
In the other age groups the Coalition is severely struggling and the carnage in NSW and Queensland will be immense. Only WA is offering a glimmer of hope for John Howard to keep the Kirribilli lights on. Simon Turner
The Australian Electoral Commission has announced that 13,645,073 voters are enrolled for this Saturday’s election.
That represents 550,000 more than had been on the electoral rolls three years earlier (13,098,461) and almost 1.3 million than actually voted in the 2004 election!
The commission also gave a breakdown of the age groupings of the Australian electorate. These are:
18-24: 1,535,870.
25-39: 3,513,510.
40-54: 3,856,190.
55 and over: 4,739,500.
So – on which side of the fence are the majority of these groups sitting?
AC Nielsen’s polling is showing that Labor is destroying the Coalition in all age groups but the over-55s, where the Coalition has an advantage nationally of 49 per cent to 43 per cent in the primary vote. Considering it is also the largest voting group, it is quite evident why John Howard and his team is ploughing such a huge effort of time and policy promises into them.
Even then, when compared to the previous 4 elections won by the Coalition, Labor has been able to gain on average an additional 9 percentage points among over-55 voters.
In the other age groups the Coalition is severely struggling and the carnage in NSW and Queensland will be immense. Only WA is offering a glimmer of hope for John Howard to keep the Kirribilli lights on. Simon Turner
Friday, November 16, 2007
Electorate More Persuaded by ALP Advertising
On Wednesday and Thursday, Roy Morgan Research used a representative sample of the Australian electorate to monitor their responses to the the seven main political advertisements running on television for the L-NP and ALP, ACTU, and ALP/Greens/Australian Democrats.
The role of The Reactor was to monitor whether the advertising made them "more inclined to the L-NP or the ALP". Between each advertisement, respondents returned to a neutral position.
Typically, the respondents react in accordance with party lines, spokespeople and topics.
Whilst this was generally the case over the last few evenings, the ACTU advertisement of the young woman and the middle-aged couple talking about how Work Choices is hurting working families, clearly touched a nerve with L-NP supporters as well as their own followers. Similarly, so did the ALP advertisement reminding the electorate of the six interest rate rises under the L-NP Government.
The L-NP appeared to be talking only to their traditional electorate and failed to move ALP voters. The ALP/Greens/Australian Democrats ad about 'time to restore the balance to the House of Review' did not move either ALP or L-NP supporters to any extent.
What the parties must do to win:
· The ALP needs to cement their traditional supporters as well as continue to motivate some L-NP voters as they appear to be achieving well. Watch a simple yet effective video from Kevin07
· The L-NP needs not only to focus its traditional voters, but also those “soft ALP voters”. It's advertising must be clearer, leaner and broader.
Who has the most stamina as we edge towards the finish line? Simon Turner
The role of The Reactor was to monitor whether the advertising made them "more inclined to the L-NP or the ALP". Between each advertisement, respondents returned to a neutral position.
Typically, the respondents react in accordance with party lines, spokespeople and topics.
Whilst this was generally the case over the last few evenings, the ACTU advertisement of the young woman and the middle-aged couple talking about how Work Choices is hurting working families, clearly touched a nerve with L-NP supporters as well as their own followers. Similarly, so did the ALP advertisement reminding the electorate of the six interest rate rises under the L-NP Government.
The L-NP appeared to be talking only to their traditional electorate and failed to move ALP voters. The ALP/Greens/Australian Democrats ad about 'time to restore the balance to the House of Review' did not move either ALP or L-NP supporters to any extent.
What the parties must do to win:
· The ALP needs to cement their traditional supporters as well as continue to motivate some L-NP voters as they appear to be achieving well. Watch a simple yet effective video from Kevin07
· The L-NP needs not only to focus its traditional voters, but also those “soft ALP voters”. It's advertising must be clearer, leaner and broader.
Who has the most stamina as we edge towards the finish line? Simon Turner
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
The Coalitions' Offer to Improve Housing Affordability
John Howard has put forward a low-tax deposit savings account pledge to assist first-home buyers as part of the Coalitions' election bounty. The $1.56 billion plan is similar to the $600m pledge of Kevin Rudds.
Under the Coalition's scheme, two forms of saving account will be available:
1) Adult first-home buyers will be able to make contributions of up to $10,000 per year into a home deposit saving account. The first $1000 deposited each year is claimable as a tax deduction and interest earned on sums in the account are tax free.
2) Adults will be able to make a total contribution of up to $1000 per year towards the first-home purchase of a family member or friend below the age of 18. The contributions are tax deductible or, for people with no taxable income, subject to a 15% cash rebate.
Additionally, Howard has also promised to exempt first homes purchased in shared equity arrangements between the occupant and a contributing family member from capital gains tax.
If you're trying to work out which party's offer is the most generous, here's what the Housing Industry Association’s Chris Lamont had to say:
“Tax concessions under the Coalition policy appears more generous than what’s offered by Labor,” Lamont says. “But Labor has more of a focus on balancing the needs of home owners with the rental market, so overall they are both very good policies.”
The reality, however, is that neither policy is likely to improve housing affordability, despite the multi-million dollar tax concessions involved. What is being promoted is creating a culture of saving.
Thus, whilst the housing affordability crisis will not be solved by such policies, it would appear that both parties are listening to the concerns of Australians. Simon Turner
Read Marquette Turner's account of Labor's policy.
Under the Coalition's scheme, two forms of saving account will be available:
1) Adult first-home buyers will be able to make contributions of up to $10,000 per year into a home deposit saving account. The first $1000 deposited each year is claimable as a tax deduction and interest earned on sums in the account are tax free.
2) Adults will be able to make a total contribution of up to $1000 per year towards the first-home purchase of a family member or friend below the age of 18. The contributions are tax deductible or, for people with no taxable income, subject to a 15% cash rebate.
Additionally, Howard has also promised to exempt first homes purchased in shared equity arrangements between the occupant and a contributing family member from capital gains tax.
If you're trying to work out which party's offer is the most generous, here's what the Housing Industry Association’s Chris Lamont had to say:
“Tax concessions under the Coalition policy appears more generous than what’s offered by Labor,” Lamont says. “But Labor has more of a focus on balancing the needs of home owners with the rental market, so overall they are both very good policies.”
The reality, however, is that neither policy is likely to improve housing affordability, despite the multi-million dollar tax concessions involved. What is being promoted is creating a culture of saving.
Thus, whilst the housing affordability crisis will not be solved by such policies, it would appear that both parties are listening to the concerns of Australians. Simon Turner
Read Marquette Turner's account of Labor's policy.
The Roy Morgan Reactor: Interest Rates
Watch the Roy Morgan Reactor, a very clever use of graphs that move in time with ALP and Coalition announcements and ads.
Watch HERE
Watch HERE
The Right to Know
“Australia’s Right to Know”, a Sydney-based coalition of media companies, commissioned a report from Irene Moss, a former magistrate and New South Wales state ombudsman. According to a statment released on November 5th, Mrs Moss found 335 pieces of legislation with secrecy provisions. Thus, can it be true that press freedom, and indeed the freedom of information in Australia is increasingly becoming endangered by the growth of government secrecy.
Ms Moss claims that the burdens associated with freedom-of-information filings have begun to overwhelm many journalists. In one particular case, government officials demanded almost $13,000 for “decision-making time” related to the release of documents about climate change around the Great Barrier Reef.
Whilst I do not believe that we're on the path to becoming like North Korea, it is nevertheless concerning to hear that bureaucracy and secrecy are taking hold of such a champion of democracy. Simon Turner
Ms Moss claims that the burdens associated with freedom-of-information filings have begun to overwhelm many journalists. In one particular case, government officials demanded almost $13,000 for “decision-making time” related to the release of documents about climate change around the Great Barrier Reef.
Whilst I do not believe that we're on the path to becoming like North Korea, it is nevertheless concerning to hear that bureaucracy and secrecy are taking hold of such a champion of democracy. Simon Turner
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Homes for the Homeless
As part of its electioneering, Labor has unveiled a $150 million promise to build up to 600 new houses and units across the country to provide better access to housing for homeless people.
Mr Rudd, speaking at a Mission Australia shelter in inner Sydney, said Labor's aim is to halve the number of homeless people turned away from shelters each year within five years and close the gap within a decade to ensure all homeless obtained shelter.
"This is all part of reaching out with a helping hand to Australians in need," he told reporters.
Mr Rudd said figures from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare indicated that in 2005-06 there were 3,383 requests for emergency accommodation that could not be met.
That was almost five per cent of the total number of requests for emergency accommodation, he said. At Mission Australia, where Mr Rudd talked to residents, more than half of all single adult women seeking accommodation are turned away.
"In a nation that has experienced 16 consecutive years of economic growth, this is simply not acceptable," stated Mr Rudd. Simon Turner
Mr Rudd, speaking at a Mission Australia shelter in inner Sydney, said Labor's aim is to halve the number of homeless people turned away from shelters each year within five years and close the gap within a decade to ensure all homeless obtained shelter.
"This is all part of reaching out with a helping hand to Australians in need," he told reporters.
Mr Rudd said figures from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare indicated that in 2005-06 there were 3,383 requests for emergency accommodation that could not be met.
That was almost five per cent of the total number of requests for emergency accommodation, he said. At Mission Australia, where Mr Rudd talked to residents, more than half of all single adult women seeking accommodation are turned away.
"In a nation that has experienced 16 consecutive years of economic growth, this is simply not acceptable," stated Mr Rudd. Simon Turner
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