The Battle of Bennelong

It took 18 days for former Prime Minister John Howard to finally concede defeat in the seat of Bennelong and he congratulated Labor’s Maxine McKew.

“The Labor Party won the seat fairly and squarely. This is a wonderful exercise in democracy” Howard told a packed gathering in Chatswood.

Mr Howard had held the Bennelong electorate since 1974 and is the second longest serving Prime Minister in Australian history. He is also only the second Prime Minister in history to lose his seat at an election, with the Australian Electoral Commission declaring Ms McKew the winner by 44,685 votes to Mr Howard’s 42,251.

Maxine McKew was humble in victory saying “I wish you and Mrs Howard all fulfilment”. Mr Howard declined to talk to the media, instead choosing to mingle with Liberal Party supporters.

The loss of Bennelong has hit deep into the psyche of the Coalition, putting every member on notice that they are far from safe come the next election in 2010. Given the massive swing to the Labor Party and the amazing campaign put together to take Bennelong from the Liberal Party, the new Leader of the opposition Brendan Nelson must surely be feeling uneasy. His seat of Bradfield is situated right next to Bennelong along with North Sydney which is still held by Liberal Joe Hockey.

The emphatic victory for Labor must surely cause slight paranoia for those in the Coalition in seats which have traditionally been considered as “safe” and certainly raises the question of who Labor will choose to run in those seats in the next election? Will it be possible to turn the political landscape further on its head and create a Labor held North Shore?

There have also been considerable rumblings from the Malcolm Turnbull camp about the validity of the leadership ballot, given that some seats were still to be decided and it would seem a fairly safe bet that a Leadership challenge is on the cards. The question is when?

Who would want to lead the Coalition to the next Federal election? Would that person be kept on as Leader if they were resoundingly defeated again? Would Peter Costello reappear as the “elder statesmen” at a later time and take the fight to the ALP? Given that Labor is in Government Federally and in every State and Territory it is a big ask to lead the Coalition at any level and we can only wish Dr Nelson the very best in what is seemingly going to be a fight to survive from within his own ranks, let alone that of the ALP.

Michael Marquette

It's The Year 2015 & Road Tolls Are Up 500%

It’s the year 2015 and Sydney’s tolls have spiraled out of control to the point where just crossing the Harbour Bridge costs $15.

A satrical look at a serious problem

The Cross City Tunnel is now a café and restaurant boulevard and the Manly Tunnel costs $25 each way. There are now two bus lanes on all major roads and the normal time to travel from Manly to the City by car is 3 hours. The construction of Sydney’s Metro Rail System is in full swing with the Labor controlled North Shore and Northern Beaches being the first to enjoy the new rail system. Completion is due in 2018 which will connect the State seat of Sydney which has just been won for Labor by high profile singer John Farnham who defeated Clover Moore by a mere 21 votes.

Sydney’s Metro Lines are estimated to take until 2042 to complete and with the extraordinary cost of tolls, housing affordability is at its lowest point in history. It now takes around 65% of gross household income to pay for housing and wages have increased, pushing inflationary targets to well above 20%pa and the Reserve Bank has official rates at 19% in an attempt to pull the economy back from the brink.

The lack of transport to New South Wales Regional cities and towns has resulted in a metropolitan housing crisis that has more than 1000 people each week becoming homeless with charities like the Salvation Army unable to cope with the enormous need for support. What can we do now in 2007 to avoid this pending Armageddon?

Sydney is choked by the lack of effective public transport. Bus lanes and more buses are not viable long term solutions as more and more cars are on the road and with less space and more bus room needed the future isn’t looking bright. The poor support for the Cross City Tunnel is a great indicator that families are being pushed to breaking point with the cost of housing and general living expenses at an all time high.

The sale and lease of New South Wales power stations and retail energy companies will be a great boost to this State and will go a long way toward helping Premier Iemma to resolve the transport crisis and aging infrastructure that is now a reality in this State.

The disastrous scenario could be even slightly true if immediate action is not taken. The current housing crisis will be solved through a variety of means but transport to Sydney from regional cities and towns in NSW must be addressed to provide a viable alternative to those unable to afford accommodation in Sydney. A super fast train (or bullet train) must be the priority of Government for cities like Newcastle and Wollongong to name just two. This would create enormous opportunities for these cities to attract major business to the areas as well as create the opportunity for people who work in the Metropolitan area to live in other more affordable places.

The upgrading of airports in regional areas to International standard is critical for the long term health of the State and a world-class metro rail system like that in London or New York City would be the icing on the cake for a State in desperate need of long term solutions.

Michael Marquette

The Labor of Living: Fear of Losing Homes Drove ALP Win

VOTERS in electorates recording the highest rates of home repossessions voted more strongly for Labor than areas not facing the same home-loan pressures, according to figures on the influence mortgage stress had on the federal election result.

The data offers the first firm evidence that mortgage stress and six interest rate rises were a key influence in seats covering Sydney's west, south-west, the Hunter and the Central Coast.

In a Fairfax analysis of lower house seats in NSW and the ACT, high home-repossession rates were a better indicator of Labor receiving a stronger vote than either high unemployment rates or lower average incomes.

The top 10 home repossession electorates were identified and these 10 electorates recorded an average swing to the ALP of 6.7 per cent, compared with an average NSW swing of 5.4 per cent, using the ABC's analysis of election results.

The swing to Labor in the 10 seats with the highest unemployment rate was 6.2 per cent and the swing to Labor in the 10 seats with the lowest income was below the state average at 5 per cent.

An associate professor of economics at the University of Western Sydney, Steve Keen, said household debt had become a pressing issue since the 2004 election, with total debts as a proportion of disposable household income increasing from 128 per cent to 160 per cent.

Over the same period the percentage of household income required to service debts had increased from 11 per cent to 16 per cent, meaning rising debt levels and interest rates had created a "double whammy".

People with mortgage repayments of between $1400 and $1600 a month, just above the average repayment, stood out as one group that moved solidly to Labor.

Interestingly, the ABC's election analyst, Antony Green, noted the seats identified by Fitch did not appear to select the seats with the lowest incomes, but rather those facing the highest cost-of-living expenses.

Simon Turner

Regional NSW in Crisis

Regional NSW is in desperate need of attention and fast. For decades Sydney has been the focus of both Federal and State Governments with regional cities like Newcastle largely ignored by both sides of politics as it has always provided a safe haven for Labor. Therefore Labor has seen no need to campaign strongly and the Coalition parties have promised little for the area as ultimately they would be unlikely to gain politically from the exercise.

It is sad to think that our country and ultimately our democracy is run in a way where political opportunism determines what infrastructure may be placed in a given area, however it would seem quite close to the reality in 2007. Successive State Governments have ignored the needs of regional NSW and therefore have in a large way created the housing crisis which we are now suffering. There has been a complete lack of focus, vision and spending on regional infrastructure connecting NSW regions to metropolitan Sydney and we now are suffering the consequences.

As a boy born and bred in Newcastle I have seen the city progress ever so slowly. I have seen the Newcastle City Council sacked in the 1980's and the Honeysuckle development touted as the city's saviour take longer to complete than it has taken for China to become a major international economic force. I experienced the earthquake in 1989 and still see unchanged remnants today which is a terrible indictment on Government at all levels.

If transport was world leading, with a super fast train connecting Sydney and regional centres we would have the capacity to resolve housing problems in Sydney with people able to live further from their workplace. We would also be able to attract business to our regions which would revolutionize the economies of many cities and towns that are otherwise struggling. Imagine a second international airport actually in Newcastle or Wollongong rather than Sydney? Imagine them connected by world class super fast train links and imagine how that might compare to London with Heathrow, Gatwick, Luton and Stanstead? Imagine how we could easily progress our nation if only common sense prevailed? Let's hope it does. Michael Marquette

Election Bloopers and Blunders

Here's some light-hearted relief from this year's federal election campaigning, compiled by ABC News.

Watch here

Howard's Judgement Day

I watched the ABC commentary last Saturday night completely in awe of the enormous 6.3 % national swing to the ALP. Not only had the ALP contained the damage in Western Australia but seat after seat had fallen in even safe Liberal electorates. Massive swings of over 14% were recorded in some seats and Maxine McKew looked like she had pulled off the unthinkable and beaten Howard in his own seat of Bennelong. All five seats in Tasmania fell to the ALP along with election winning gains in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Ministers had fallen and at that point we were still be told of the pending retirements of senior Coalition members like Mark Vaile and Peter Costello to name just two.

At 10.35pm Prime Minister Howard appeared with his family to concede defeat and in doing so ending an era Australian politics. His speech was delivered with enormous dignity and grace and he congratulated Prime Minister elect Rudd on a “very emphatic victory”. He also went on to accept full responsibility for the Coalition campaign and election defeat and also stressed that Australia was now “stronger, prouder and more prosperous” than it had been 11 ½ years prior. If that statement was true then why had so many Australians turned their back on the Coalition? If indeed the average family were so much better off why had they so resoundingly sacked the government?

There are a number of factors that I suggest were at play. Firstly Australians have developed a social conscience that now cannot be politically ignored. Issues like the environment, treatment of refugees, equal rights for gay and lesbian couples and the promised “Education Revolution” have hit a chord with voters to the extent that the economy has been considered as one factor rather than the main factor in determining government. The massive increase in the availability and access to information due to the internet has played its part in shaping this election result. Never before have the Australian people had such a massive amount of information so readily available to assist in making the enormous decision of electing our government. Never before has there been such scrutiny of a government’s performance.

At the end of 33 years in parliament, 15 as Leader of the Liberal Party and 11 ½ years as Prime Minister, John Howard has cemented his place in history as the second longest serving Prime Minister in Australia’s history. Australia’s 26th Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd has set a massive agenda for reform and was at work on Sunday morning speaking to other world leaders and instructing the new Labor Caucus to visit at least one government and one private school in their electorate before meeting in Canberra this Thursday. With Labor in government Federally and in all States and Territories we have never had a better chance of resolving issues where there has been little or no co-operation between Government at all levels. It is with enormous excitement that I thank Mr Howard for his contribution to our great nation and welcome the man who may well prove to be the best Prime Minister this country has ever seen.

Michael Marquette

What the Polls Say: The Latest Snapshot

The latest Newspoll shows while the Coalition has slightly narrowed the gap on Labor, it still has ground to make up

The poll of 20 Nov in the Australian newspaper shows the Coalition closing the gap slightly on the primary vote, up 1point to 41 per cent. This is 5 points behind Labor, which has dropped 2 points to 46 per cent.

On a two party-preferred basis, the Coalition has climbed one point to 46 per cent, eight points behind Labor on 54 per cent.

The gap between John Howard and Kevin Rudd has also narrowed slightly, 42 per cent would prefer Mr Howard as Prime Minister, up 2 points, compared to 46 per cent opting for Mr Rudd.
It's the closest preferred PM result in six months.

On the issue of economic management, John Howard has maintained his lead, despite an unprecedented interest rate rise during the election campaign.

As for Malcolm Turnbull's seat of Wentworth (Marquette Turner HQ), a new poll suggests he is facing an uphill battle to retain his seat.

A Nielsen poll of 901 Wentworth voters, published in Fairfax newspapers, shows Greens preferences could give Labor's George Newhouse, leading to a Labor win in the seat for the first time since federation.

Even though Mr Turnbull leads the primary vote by 45 per cent to 36 per cent, Greens candidate Susan Jarnason is attracting 17 per cent support in the primary vote and her preferences will flow to Labor, leaving Mr Newhouse leading Mr Turnbull by 52 percent to 48 percent on a two party preferred basis.

This of course does not factor in the shadow over Mr Newhouse's head as to whether he is inellegible to be a candidate. A Liberal Party spokesperson cites Mr Newhouse, as well as 12 other Labor candidates throughout Australia, whose candidacy is questionable. The ALP completely disputes such assertions and whilst this could lead to a spate of by-elections post-election, it could also shore up support for the ALP leading up to the election as voters turn against the Coalition for raising such assertions.

Finally, a special telephone Morgan Poll of 435 electors conducted last night (November 20) shows a swing (0.8%) to the Liberals in the five Western Australian marginal seats of Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan.

In these five key WA seats, Liberal primary support is 44%, ALP 42.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 1% and Independent/Others 3%.

After allocating preferences the two-party preferred result is Liberal 50.5%, ALP 49.5% - a swing of 0.8% to the Liberals since the 2004 election. Simon Turner